Recent economic data for the first three quarters of this year has been released, showing impressive growth in China’s foreign trade. On October 14, the General Administration of Customs announced that imports and exports totaled 32.33 trillion yuan, marking the first time this figure has surpassed 32 trillion in history, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Exports were 18.62 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, while imports reached 13.71 trillion yuan, rising by 4.1%. For the first three quarters, the quarterly breakdown shows that imports and exports exceeded 10 trillion yuan in each quarter, a historic first.
What are the primary factors driving this growth in foreign trade? From a structural perspective, we see a notable increase in high-end equipment exports, highlighting key characteristics of China’s economic development. Given the increasingly complex external environment, what strategies will be employed to achieve the goal of quality improvement and stable volume in foreign trade by the end of the year?
Stable growth in imports and exports is largely driven by both supply and demand. On the demand side, recent updates from the World Trade Organization indicate increased projections for global merchandise trade growth, and organizations like the World Bank and OECD suggest that the global economy is stabilizing, providing favorable conditions for Chinese exports. In the first three quarters, exports to traditional markets such as Europe, the U.S., and Japan grew by 4.2%, while exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Latin America increased by 12.3% and 13.7%, respectively.
Domestically, steady growth in industrial production has led to significant increases in imports of coal, natural gas, and iron ore—up by 11.9%, 13%, and 4.9%, respectively. The consumption electronics sector has also seen a cyclical upswing, resulting in double-digit growth in imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, integrated circuits, and flat panel display modules. The consumption market has maintained a stable growth trajectory, with imports of specialty fruits, wine, and clothing rising by 7.1%, 28.9%, and 6.1%, respectively, effectively meeting diverse domestic consumer demands.
On the supply side, China is rapidly advancing new quality production capabilities, with clear trends toward high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, making Chinese products increasingly favored globally. In the first three quarters of this year, China exported 11.03 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, up 8% and accounting for 59.3% of total exports, with high-end equipment exports rising by 43.4%.
China’s manufacturing sector has demonstrated robust strength on the global stage, exemplified by the recent export of the world’s largest oil production platform, with a price tag exceeding 10 billion yuan. In shipbuilding, Chinese companies are increasingly providing green, safe, and intelligent vessels, with significant increases in delivery numbers.
As for the highlights of China’s foreign trade performance in the first three quarters, experts point to the continued stability in both volume and quality. According to Wei Qijia, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission’s National Information Center, technology-intensive and capital-intensive products have been particularly well-received in overseas markets, suggesting that China’s supply chain is resilient and competitive.
The performance can also be attributed to the continued optimization of the business environment at ports. For instance, in Shandong Province, the Qingdao Customs has introduced innovative solutions to reduce clearance costs associated with redundant inspections. The smooth connectivity between ports and factories, facilitated by advanced logistics, has attracted significant investment to the area, further driving trade growth.
China’s growing trade relationships are also a contributing factor to the continued increase in exports. In the first three quarters, trade with over 160 countries and regions rose significantly, with exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP member nations both seeing notable increases.
However, as we look towards the final quarter of the year, challenges remain. Recent reports from the International Monetary Fund indicate that global economic growth is below the average levels of the early 2000s. Concerns over supply chain disruptions and trade restrictions from other nations also pose risks to export performance.
When questioned about the impact of weakened international market demand on Chinese exports, Director Lv Daliang from the Customs Statistics and Analysis Department noted that while there has been a slowdown in export growth, the overall trend remains strong, with historical highs in cumulative export values.
In light of these complexities, experts recommend focusing on enhancing resilience, optimizing trade structures, and maintaining a conducive policy environment to achieve steady growth in foreign trade throughout the year.
