Taiwan’s securities transaction tax has exceeded expectations, with forecasts indicating that total central government revenue is not only set to meet the budget but could surpass it by NT$100 billion (approximately US$3.1 billion). This was highlighted by Finance Minister Chang Tsui-yun during her report to the Finance Committee of the Legislative Yuan on October 16.
As of the end of September, total national revenue reached NT$2.9453 trillion (around US$91.6 billion), which accounts for 91% of the budget, while central government revenue was NT$2.1415 trillion, or 92.5% of the budget. Minister Chang noted that the performance of the securities transaction tax was particularly strong, contributing to the optimistic projection for total central revenue.
In response to questions from Democratic Progressive Party legislator Wu Ping-rui about whether this year’s revenue would exceed budget estimates, Chang confirmed that both comprehensive income tax and securities transaction tax had already reached their annual budget targets. Additionally, the business tax has also performed well, primarily due to stable domestic demand and an increase in imported raw materials.
When discussing the anticipated surplus for the year, Chang asserted that achieving the budget was a certainty, and a conservative estimate suggests an excess of NT$100 billion for the central government. Detailed figures will be clearer after October, as September’s provisional business tax payments will only be fully accounted for at that time.
If this year’s revenue does surpass the budget, it will mark a fourth consecutive year of surplus. Legislator Wu questioned whether the Finance Ministry’s revenue estimates were overly conservative. Chang emphasized that the ministry has been continually improving its revenue forecasting methods, including refining tax estimation mechanisms and establishing specialized teams to analyze various factors affecting tax revenues.
Chang acknowledged a unique situation this year where the performance of the securities transaction tax has significantly outperformed estimates. For the first nine months, the collected amount reached NT$220.7 billion, exceeding the annual budget target of NT$208.7 billion. When the budget was drafted, the average daily trading volume on the Taiwan Stock Exchange was projected at NT$350 billion, but it has consistently approached NT$500 billion, with an average trading value of NT$494.3 billion in the first nine months.
According to the Ministry of Finance’s statistics, total revenue for the first three quarters stands at NT$2.9453 trillion, accounting for 112.7% of the cumulative budget allocation and 91.1% of the full-year budget. This figure represents an increase of NT$154.7 billion, or 5.5%, compared to the same period last year. Several tax categories, including comprehensive income tax, estate tax, gift tax, securities transaction tax, futures transaction tax, and luxury tax, have already met their full-year budget goals by the end of Q3.
In observing the trends in tax revenue over recent years, aside from a shortfall in 2020 due to the pandemic, Taiwan has experienced surplus years from 2021 to 2023, with the surpluses exceeding NT$300 billion each year.
